APPLICATION OF THE PERPEST MODEL IN THE PREDICTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS OF ENDOSULFAN ON OREOCHROMIS LEOCOSTICTUS. A CASE STUDY OF LAKE NAIVASHA, KENYA

Abstract

The occurrence, concentration and spatial distributions of  Endosulfan  (6,7,8,9,10,10-hexachloro-1,5,5a,6,9,9a-hexahydro–6,9-methano-2,4,3-benzodioxathiepine-3-oxide)  and endosulfan sulfate  were studied in the Lake Naivasha basin during the months of May to December 2010. The aim of the study was to determine the concentration of endosulfan in the watercourse. Endosulfan sulfate was the mostpredominant with a range of 16.2  -  345  ng/L  and a mean of 131 ± 110.2  ng/L  followed by endosulfan  II41.7 – 92.8 ng/L and a mean of 60.6 ± 20.3 ng/L, and endosulfan I 20.1 – 57.9 ng/L and a mean of 34.3 ± 14.7 ng/L  respectively. The measured exposure concentrations were translated into environmental risks factors using the PERPEST model Version 3.0. The model was calibrated using laboratory experimental data on exposure of  O.  leocostictus  to endosulfan in aquariums simulating Lake Naivasha. The environmental risks posed by the measured exposure concentrations of endosulfan on  O.  leocostictuswere predicted as total endosulfan (∑Endosulfan).  ∑Endosulfan ranged from 80.9  -  450 ng/L within the basin with a mean of 225.8 ± 129.1 ng/L. Results of the prediction were compared those obtained from microcosm laboratory experiments simulating the Lake Naivasha ecosystem to assess the accuracy of the model.  The study shows that though the insecticide is not targeted to kill fish it has an adverse effect on the population of O. Leocostictus. The measured exposure concentrations can cause reduction in population of  O. Leocostictus  by between 0  –  6% in  O. Leocostictus. Comparison of the results of the prediction shows that there is no significant difference between the results obtained from the microcosm experiment at p = 0.05. The study shows that the model can be applied in environmental and toxicity studies of chemicals without the use of laboratory specimens. The study also explains the variability of aquatic organisms’ populations in the lake can explain the current decline in populations of aquatic life in Lake Naivasha. Increased monitoring is thus recommended to detect inflow of toxic chemicals to safeguard aquatic life