DROUGHT RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT; A CASE STUDY OF BARINGO COUNTY, KENYA

Abstract

This study was undertaken in arid and semi arid county of Baringo which is prone to perennial droughts, with the majority of its population affected by the recurrent droughts and high poverty levels. The primary objective of this research is to assess population vulnerability, drought risk and rainfall performance during the drought period. The drought assessment was based on known drought periods, of 2009. Meteorological validation using NOAA-AVRHR data was used to determine the rainfall variation over the long term average. The data were obtained from NOAAAdvanced Very High  Resolution Radiometer  (AVHRR), was  processed  with ESRI-GIS  software. The  population vulnerability was processed using poverty rates, population density and livelihoods. An analytical hierarchy processcriterion was used in determining vulnerability using the three socioeconomic variables.  The drought assessment was determined using the normalized difference drought Index (NDDI) a combination of the normalized difference vegetation  index (NDVI)  and  the  normalized  difference  water  index  (NDWI).  The  results  show  that  the  poverty prevalence is high in marginal and pastoral livelihoods. Approximately 27.87% of the marginal livelihood and 25.62% pastoral livelihood are highly vulnerable. The livelihood drought risk analysis indicates that 49.58% of the marginallivelihood and 46.43% of pastoral livelihood to be at risk due to drought hazard. In conclusion, marginal, pastoral and  agro-pastoral  livelihoods  are  under  serious  drought  risk  with  its population  capacities  undermined  by  high poverty  rates,  in  this  respect government should  promote  poverty  reduction  projects  and  improved  marketsinfrastructure and  access.

Key words: Vulnerability, livelihood, drought risk, poverty, NDWI, NDVI, NDDI