KENYA POWER SECTOR DEVELOPNET SCENARIOS – ANALYSIS USING LONG RANGE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE PLANNING SYSTEM

Abstract

Energy  is  universally  recognized  as  one  of  the  most fundamental  inputs  for  social  and economicdevelopment.  Currently, the estimated access to electricity in Kenya  stands at 63%. The Government hasa  plan  to  increase  this  accessibility  to  100%  and  achieve  100%  connectivity by  2030  throughimplementation  of  the  Least  Cost  Power  Development  Plan (LCPDP),  extension  of  the  grid  andestablishment of mini-grids  in  areas  where  extension of  grid is  not economically  feasible.   This  paper seeks  to  analyze  three  possible  power development  scenarios in  relation  to  their  Green  House  Gas (GHG)  emissions  and  cost implications. The  LCPDP   forms  the  reference  scenario,  it  has a  supply  mixof hydro, geothermal,  thermal  (including  Gas  turbine  and  Medium Speed Diesel Plants), nuclear, windand coal power plants.  The second scenario has a supply mix of hydro, geothermal, thermal  (Gas TurbinePlants only),  nuclear,  wind and  coal power plants.  The  third  scenario will have  a  supply  mix of hydro,geothermal,  thermal  (Gas  Turbine  Plants), nuclear,  wind, coal  power  plants  and  5%  small  renewable (small-hydro,   solar-PV  and  biomass  plants) as  non-dispatchable plants.   The expansion plan is modeledfrom  2012 -2030 using  the Long Range  Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP).  The demand forecastfor  the domestic,  industrial, commercial  and  street lighting  sectors  is carried  out  to simulate  how thepower demand is expected  to change  from an  estimated peak demand of 1300MW to 7500MW in 2030.The  results  from the  reference scenario show that it’s the  most economically viable option  of generatingpower but  with the highest carbon footprint.   The second scenario  if implemented would lead to  a GHGsaving  of 2.2million  tonnes  of CO2 equivalent,  at  a  cost  of $45.6/tonne  CO2 eq.  The  third scenariowould lead to a GHG saving of 6.2million tonnes of CO2eq,  at a cost of $8.6/tonne CO2eq. Therefore third scenario has the  greatest  saving in terms  of the  GHG emissions and  would be the  ideal  path  for Kenya to  follow in  terms  of energy  security  and mitigation   of the adverse  effects brought about  by climatechange.

Key words:  Kenya,  energy  scenarios, greenhouse  gas emissions